Today’s Times of India (TOI) (May 16) carries a telling graphic. It lists the nine major terrorist bombings that have taken place in the country since 2005 (the latest one occurring in Jaipur two days ago); and the current status of the investigations to trace the culprits. In a word, the current status of the investigations is pathetic. Most of the bombers have escaped or remain untraced; and few of the masterminds behind the attacks have been conclusively identified, let alone brought to justice.

The reaction of India’s security agencies in the aftermath of a terrorist incident has become so predictable, that it is almost text book. A ‘high alert’ is declared; and roadblocks are set up at major traffic junctions. The problem is that, in most cases, the policemen manning the roadblocks have no real idea what they are looking for; and only end up harassing ordinary law-abiding citizens.

It is a classic example of closing the stable door after the horse has bolted. I am sure the security agencies don’t need to be told that every big terrorist attack is the result of months of meticulous planning and considerable resources. It is ludicrous to expect the terrorists to carry out another attack the next day; or the day after. The emphasis, unfortunately, is everywhere except where it should be – taking steps to prevent future attacks.

As has been proved, even in countries that have first rate security agencies, it is virtually impossible to stop all terrorist attacks. However, a good many of them can be prevented with good intelligence. The tragedy of India is not that its intelligence gathering agencies are totally incompetent – they are not. The shame is that even after intelligence is received by the state governments; it is rarely acted upon in time.

There is no malevolent intent behind this apathy. The slow reaction time is almost inevitable, because the intelligence runs up against the brick wall of the traditionally lethargic Indian bureaucracy. Ironically, I am able to buttress my case with another news report in the same paper.

To most people living in Mumbai, the deadly serial train blasts of July 2006 have been imprinted on their memories. Immediately following the blast, the Maharashtra state government decided to set up an intelligence wing that would work in the same manner as India’s Intelligence Bureau (roughly equivalent to America’s FBI). A good idea indeed, but nearly two years later, it remains on paper. Not a single person has been recruited to man the new wing. The reason is a classic illustration of Indian bureaucracy at work.

To start with, it took more than one and half years after the idea was formulated for the state government to grant the sanction to recruit 900 personnel for the new wing. Two months after that, the government department that is supposed to conduct exams for recruitment is yet to announce the dates. It is not that the responsible agencies are deliberately trying to sabotage the process. It is just the way they function. Our politicians are not displaying any sense of urgency because, to them, it is not urgent. It does not directly affect their continued prosperity, after all. Translation – it is not going to gain or lose them any votes. If I was a terrorist planning an attack in Mumbai, right now I would be feeling pretty complacent.

In this case, the indifferent bureaucracy will find a natural ally in that other bugbear of the Indian polity: corruption. Normally, there are over a thousand applicants for every vacant government position. Here, the new Intelligence Wing may have difficulty in filling its 900 vacancies. As a senior police officer quoted to the TOI, “The fresh staff will be dedicated to intelligence gathering and will work with the State Intelligence Department until retirement.”

In the Indian context, this is anything but an inducement. The most in-demand posts in India’s police forces are those where the cops come in frequent contact with the general public. Frequent contact translates into frequent bribes. There is no percentage in joining an Intelligence department, till retirement, where one has no avenues for personal enrichment.

And so the cycle will be repeat itself ad infinitum. As a wise man once said, “those who forget their history are condemned to repeat it.”